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Beyond the Checklist: How to Build True Resilience in Uncertainty

Published 4 months ago • 1 min read

You’re Receiving a Special 3-Part Series on Decision Resilience

Over the next few days, you’ll get three concise emails, each sharing a key insight from our latest article on worst-case scenario planning.

If you’d like to dive deeper or read the full piece at your own pace, you can access the complete article at any time using the link below.

​www.decision-mastery.com/articles/worst-case-scenario​

Let’s build stronger decision-making together.
“The turkey is fed for 1,000 days by a butcher—until the day before Thanksgiving, when its trust in routine proves fatal. What the turkey never imagined becomes its reality.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Sometimes, life throws you a Black Swan. An unpredictable event that changes everything. No matter how carefully you plan, there will always be surprises outside your expectations.

This is why worst-case scenario planning, while valuable, has its limits.

If you over-plan, you can develop a false sense of security. It is easy to believe that because everything has been fine so far, it always will be. This is the real danger of falling into the “turkey problem.”

You might also find yourself focusing so much on known risks that you become stuck in analysis paralysis, or even complacent, thinking you are prepared for anything.

There is a better way forward:

  • Use scenario planning to build adaptability, not just create endless checklists. The goal is to help you respond quickly to the unexpected, not to predict every detail.
  • Focus on antifragility. This means designing your business or team to get stronger when faced with shocks or challenges. Examples include keeping cash reserves or empowering people to make decisions independently.
  • Stay humble. As Taleb reminds us, true wisdom comes from recognising what you do not know.

Scenario planning is a tool to help you prepare for what you can imagine, but it is not a crystal ball. The real value comes from building adaptability and resilience, so you are ready for whatever comes your way.

If you want more insights on building a resilient, adaptable team, I invite you to read the full article:

​www.decision-mastery.com/articles/worst-case-scenario​

How do you prepare for Black Swans?

I would love to hear your thoughts.

Darren

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Glan Menai, Lon Isaf, Morfa Nefyn, Pwllheli, LL53 6BW
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Decision Mastery Insights

by Darren Matthews

Struggling with complex decisions? Every Thursday, join 700+ leaders and discover actionable frameworks and data-driven strategies to help you lead with confidence.

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