The best decision-making tip I’ve ever heard comes from Ray Dalio’s classic book, Principles.

Dalio is renowned for his decades-long journey leading Bridgewater Associates, and while his stories are fascinating, the true gems for me lie elsewhere in the book.

The most important tip emerges from his principle of being radically open-minded. This idea is powerful—it’s often the difference between decisions that succeed and those that crash and burn.

It’s the difference between your team responding with a lukewarm “yeah, yeah” or an enthusiastic “hell yeah.”

It’s the difference between making decisions that have a real chance of success and those that never stand a chance.

If you want more of your decisions to create outcomes that help your business grow and move forward, here’s the single question you need to ask:

“What do I know to be true?”

Truth acts like a well-positioned anchor.

It’s an unarguable statement of fact—crucial, because we all treat assumptions, beliefs, and opinions as facts when it suits us.

Without truth, decision-making becomes nothing more than a wish list.

Let me give you an example.

Imagine you have a salesperson who irritates you, but consistently delivers results. When you’re interviewing for a key account manager role and they apply, you go with your gut and reject their application.

If you were the person who applied, how would you feel?

Especially if, six months later, the candidate you did hire fails their probation.

Would you reapply?

Probably not.

Now, let’s look at this from the company’s perspective.

During your next performance review, what would your boss say?

You made a decision based on a feeling and spent six months with someone who lacked the proven performance of other applicants.

How do you justify that decision?

You can’t.

Now, let’s rewind and ask Dalio’s question before the interviews:

“What do I know to be true?”

With some honest reflection, you realise the salesperson irritates you—but why? Digging deeper, you recall a minor slight at the last Christmas party, when you were left out of a round of drinks. That stuck with you.

Returning to the question:

“What do I know to be true?”

You see the salesperson’s strong track record, their commitment to work, and their willingness to support new starters.

Truth is the best foundation for any decision.

A truth embraced is a truth won.

A truth ignored often leads to failure.

Facts are facts. As decision-makers, we must surface them.

Opinions, beliefs, and assumptions are like bubbles in a bath—you have to clear them away to see the clarity of the water beneath.

That’s why Dalio’s question remains one of the best decision-making tips I’ve ever encountered.

What’s your favourite decision-making tip?

Thanks for reading,

Darren

P.S. This question is one of my five favourite critical thinking questions.

Discover the other 4 here: https://www.decision-mastery.com/articles/critical-thinking-questions​