The One Question That Saved My Business Thousands


The most expensive mistakes in business aren’t made from a lack of data.

They’re made by ignoring probability.

I’ve been there.

Throughout my career, critical decisions cost the companies I worked in thousands—not because we lacked information, but because we never assessed likelihood.

The problem?

We never asked one simple question: “How likely is this?”

When I finally started asking this question, everything changed.

I began evaluating:

  • Information quality
  • What might change
  • The outcome I wanted

Is this market research reliable? Will this competitive advantage last? Does this align with our strategic goals?

This brought alternative scenarios to mind.

Some were more probable than others.

I started making decisions based on probability, not just preference.

The results were immediate.

Business plans create forecasts of growth, often without realism.

Working with a client on a future plan, I asked:

“How likely is this growth?”

They identified market risks they’d overlooked.

They restructured the forecast, setting more realistic objectives.

Now, before every strategic decision, I ask: “How likely is this?”

My decisions thank me. Yours will too.

Find out why we have a problem with probability. Read the article below.

Thanks for reading,

Darren


Glan Menai, Lon Isaf, Morfa Nefyn, Pwllheli, LL53 6BW
Unsubscribe · Preferences

Decision Mastery Insights

Struggling with complex decisions? Every Thursday, join 700+ leaders and discover actionable frameworks and data-driven strategies to help you lead with confidence.

Read more from Decision Mastery Insights

The best decision-making tip I’ve ever heard comes from Ray Dalio’s classic book, Principles. Dalio is renowned for his decades-long journey leading Bridgewater Associates, and while his stories are fascinating, the true gems for me lie elsewhere in the book. The most important tip emerges from his principle of being radically open-minded. This idea is powerful—it’s often the difference between decisions that succeed and those that crash and burn. It’s the difference between your team...

Decision Mastery Insights Email Header

You’re Receiving a Special 3-Part Series on Decision Resilience Over the next few days, you’ll get three concise emails, each sharing a key insight from our latest article on worst-case scenario planning. If you’d like to dive deeper or read the full piece at your own pace, you can access the complete article at any time using the link below. www.decision-mastery.com/articles/worst-case-scenario Let’s build stronger decision-making together. “The turkey is fed for 1,000 days by a...

Decision Mastery Insights Email Header

You’re Receiving a Special 3-Part Series on Decision Resilience Over the next few days, you’ll get three concise emails, each sharing a key insight from our latest article on worst-case scenario planning. If you’d like to dive deeper or read the full piece at your own pace, you can access the complete article at any time using the link below. www.decision-mastery.com/articles/worst-case-scenario Let’s build stronger decision-making together. With your threats and vulnerabilities mapped out,...